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Gold: $ 1,310.00 Silver: $ 17.23 Platinum: $ 944.00 Palladium: $ 919.00 09/25/2017 09:43:00 PM



The Market Gage for February 3, 2016


Market Insights
from Walter Pehowich

Longs still in control of the gold market as we continue to witness inflows into the gold ETF's. Gold overnight broke thru the 200-day moving average at $1,132.00, but failed to gain momentum above as selling from the Middle East put a damper on the rally.

Kansas City FED President Esther George said yesterday, “There has been no substantial shift in the outlook that would justify pausing further gradual rate hikes.” For some professional gold traders, these statements from the FED gives them mixed signals on whether to join the rally or sell into it.

Read more.

The Market Gage for January 27, 2016


Market Insights
from Walter Pehowich

Good morning. I will be traveling to Dallas with the first flight out of Newark this morning, so unfortunately I will be unable to give my live market comments.

But I wanted to still communicate my thoughts on an aspect of the precious metals industry, so I decided to address the question:

Why do Central Banks buy Gold?

In recent months I have been told by some Wall Street professionals that they believe gold fundamentals have deteriorated. Not to mention the Fed's decision to raise rates in December last year. And adding to this thought process, are some Fed governor comments that more rate hikes are a possibility.

Read more.

The Market Gage for January 25, 2016


Market Insights
from Walter Pehowich

How does one gage (no pun intended) the future movement in the price of gold? My best answer would be: by researching all aspects of the gold market each and every day; speaking to many different people, from traders around the globe, to folks at the Mints, refiners and dealers; listening to what the FED policy makers have to say and watching worldwide currency activity.

I'm always being asked, "What do you think the price of gold will do in the short term and for the year?" As in any market, trying to calculate the move in the next five minutes is always a challenge, if not impossible. And at times there will be conflicting information making it very difficult to put together a strategy.

Read more.

The Market Gage for January 22, 2016


Market Insights
from Walter Pehowich

We start the day on a quiet note with oil and the dollar in positive territory, something that we haven't experienced for quite some time.

Gold feeling slight pressure this morning because of the stronger dollar and higher oil prices. We have also noticed that base metals as well as Silver, Platinum and Palladium all in green territory.

Gold in backwardation mode. Feb-April gold switch this morning trading .30-.40 back indicating a slight tightness in the metal. London EFP quoted a positive 20-40 figure, haven't seen this in a long time. One might think, that the reason for this is, the recent increase in ETF holdings over the last ten days.

Read more.

The Market Gage for December 16, 2015


Welcome to the Super Bowl of all rate hike decisions. It's been almost a decade since the last rate hike in interest rates and today at 2pm EST we will find out the FED decision.

With the majority of economists and Wall Street traders believing a rate hike is a done deal, the focus shifts to the language going forward. Is this a one and done rate hike, or are more rate hikes in our future? Algorithm programs are in place to react to key words in the language the Fed releases and can have a significant impact on all markets. I encourage you all to watch the action at 2pm. I think you'll find it very interesting as these events can cause wild swings in prices.

No one knows for sure what the FED will do in 2016. Some economists believe once the FED gets started raising rates, three or four rate hikes in 2016 are in order, but it's my belief that Janet Yellen is so conservative that she will indicate that any future rate hikes will be dictated by market data and will refuse to commit to showing her hand.

Read more.

The Market Gage for December 9, 2015


Dollar index below 98 and Euro rally this morning has given Gold a bid to the upside. Gold approaching the higher end of the recent trading range < $1,070 to $1,090 >, as sellers yesterday failed to push gold below its support level at $1,068.20.

Everyone still looking for the magical $1,100 level to be reached. In the absence of a FED rate hike next week, the only other vehicle that could propel gold above the $1,100 dollar level in my opinion would be a continued weaker dollar.

Read more.

The Market Gage for November 18, 2015


Market Insights
By Walter Pehowich

December Gold broke thru the well-supported $1,073 area yesterday, reaching a 5-year low. For those who are short the yellow metal, they all await the Wall Street trader's next technical level of $1,050 to be tested.

On the other side of the ledger we all await the FOMC minutes to be released this afternoon to hear if they give any clues that would indicate that a rate hike in December is a done deal. Silver finally catching the falling knife that Gold experienced of late, trading this morning down to $13.99 in the December contract, just above the next level of support at $ 13.95. Silver coin demand continues to moderately increase along with the premiums.

Read more.

The Market Gage for November 16, 2015


Market Insights
By Walter Pehowich

We start the week with Far East buying in the overnight Gold market on the tragic news of the Paris attacks. Usually these news story rallies are short lived. Gold is still trade bound and I don't expect anything different for the time being.

Silver also locked in a trading range with most financial advisors indicating that their precious metal inquiries have gone dry. Most retail investors indicate that before they put new buy orders in the Silver market, the price of Silver has to decline well below the $14 dollar level. United States Mint Silver Eagle allocation lower this week due to the Veteran's Day holiday last week..

Read more.

The Market Gage for November 13, 2015


Market Insights
By Walter Pehowich

With over four weeks to the next FOMC meeting and no significant news to report, the markets just continue to be in a pause mode.

As I said in the past, I'm not a guy who relies on the charts, but I must give credit where credit is due to my technical pals who said $1,073 would be the first level of support in the gold market on the downside. Kudos to them! At $1,073 in December futures, we saw good bids, so the market bounced off that number and then settled back into its boring trading range.

For those who follow open interest figures, gold opening interest figures for the last 2 days are down 12,000 contracts indicating more longs getting out of the market. Continued Gold ETF redemption figures can't be ignored as investors give up on any appreciation in the price of the yellow metal. Read more.

The Market Gage for November 9, 2015


Market Insights
By Walter Pehowich

After a strong jobs number on Friday, the Precious Metals Market pauses to reevaluate its next move. Very little data this week will give the Gold market a chance to act on its own.

Wall street traders are watching the currencies this week to see if the dollar will continue to strengthen putting more pressure on the metals. Most believe the metals will stay in an offer mode until more data is released. I can't disagree.

Most say, with the job number so strong, it opens the window for a rate hike in December and gives the Fed a break from all the criticism the Wall street traders have put on them. The majority of traders believe the at the next FOMC meeting a quarter point rate is a done deal. I guess the banks would be happy if this happens and it gives a little hope for retirees with money in the bank, but will hurt the real estate folks. Read more.

The Market Gage for November 4, 2015


Market Insights
By Walter Pehowich

Open interest is an indicator often used by traders to confirm trends and trend reversals for both the futures and options markets. Open interest represents the total number of open contracts on a commodity, meaning one buyer and one seller. Trade volume and open interest is a powerful tool used by traders to predict market trends and it's my favorite tool to predict future market movement.

Used in conjunction with open interest, volume represents the total number of contracts that have changed hands in a one-day trading session in the commodities or options market. The greater the amount of trading during a market session, the higher the trading volume. The greater the volume, the more we can expect the existing trend to continue rather than reverse.

So now that you have an understanding of what open interest is, I'll start my story. Read more.

The Market Gage for November 1, 2015


Market Insights
By Walter Pehowich

From my hotel room in Dallas. I will be spending a good part of the week here. We begin the week with selling pressure out of the Far East.

Gold trading under $1,140 this morning with the remnants of stops being triggered at that level overnight. Continued stronger dollar helping the shorts in the Gold market gain momentum. Next level to watch is $1,131 in December, then possibly test the $1,110, according to Wall Street Gold technicians. Read more.

The Market Gage for October 28, 2015


Market Insights
By Walter Pehowich

It's about time for us to talk about Platinum and Palladium as investments. Are they suitable and is there any interest these days? If you talk to the average financial advisor about Platinum and Palladium as a retail investment, almost everyone claims that they have no interest. And if you've been long in these products for a while, it's something you probably don't bring up in any conversation.

Nonetheless, with gold and silver seeming as if they are going into hibernation for the winter (and to press a point if I may, I'm tired of listening to CNBC and Bloomberg network commentators talk about what they think the FED may do) it's time to turn the page. So let's talk a little bit about Platinum and Palladium. Read more.

The Market Gage for October 26, 2015


Market Insights
By Walter Pehowich

The precious metal markets start off the week locked in a trading range. Gold open interest is up for the fifth week in a row, indicating new longs in place, I guess with hopes the price of Gold has bottomed out.

Option traders on the street have flattened up their positions, giving up hope for a rally to $1,200 dollars going into CME option expiration tomorrow. Retail demand continues to lack any luster with most retail investors looking to equities as the fourth quarter rally continues. Read more.

The Market Gage for October 21, 2015


Market Insights
From Walter Pehowich

Topic: We have reached a fork in the road.

The Gold market for the last couple of days has been trading in a tight range on both sides of the 200-day moving average. These prices are getting old and we look for some news or event that with give us some direction. The fork in the road is the 200-day moving average and to quote the late, great Hall of Famer, Yogi Berra, “When you get to the fork in the road take it!” I'm sure you can't argue, but I'm tired of looking at that fork in the road.

Read more.

The Market Gage for October 19, 2015


Market Insights
From Walter Pehowich

Markets this morning under slight pressure after gold failed to reach the $1,200 level. Wall Street traders' wish list for the week was to test the $1,200 level to see if the market would accelerate from there. Thanks to the Far East selling overnight in precious metals, traders look for action in other markets for the time being. Everyone looking to Washington on the debt ceiling discussion for news that might bring a bid to the market again.

Retail sales sluggish as the market becomes range bound. Retail investors still investing in equities as they enjoy a three week rally in the Dow and S&P.

Read more.

The Market Gage for October 14, 2015


Market Insights
From Walter Pehowich

By Walter Pehowich,

As of Monday morning Oct. 12th, the U. S. Mint total production for 2015 Silver Eagles was 37,129,500 coins. With the end of the 2015 Silver Eagle production year upon us, I wanted to share my estimate of how many more coins will be produced before the Mint starts producing the 2016 edition. Please understand this is only my best estimate.

I expect that the U. S. Mint will average approximately 950,000 silver eagles each week until they reach 45,000,000 coins and start minting the 2016 edition. Unlike the Royal Canadian Mint that can start selling 2016 Silver Maples in 2015, the U. S. Mint can only offer 2016s after the first of the year.

Read more.

The Market Gage for October 12, 2015


Market Insights
From Walter Pehowich

By Walter Pehowich,

Our day starts out with preliminary opening interest numbers up in gold, bringing new longs into the gold market. Overnight resistance levels at $1,160 broke through from Far East interest. The next level that Wall Street traders are watching will be $1,170 basis Dec. Fueling the gold price are comments from former Dallas Fed official Richard Fisher. stating that a Fed hike may be seen by year end but it's NOT necessary.

Read more.

The Market Gage for October 7, 2015


A good Wednesday morning to you all. CME Future prices have a story to tell in certain circumstances. Today's topic: How the spot price can affect future prices.

Let's examine the difference between a Contango market and a market in backwardation. First lets define the two and describe what I look for when the availability of physical metal gets tight:

  • Contango market: This is a condition where the forward prices exceed the spot price creating an upward curve in pricing. Example: December gold $1,100, February gold $1,101, April gold $1,102, June gold $1,103.
  • Backwardation market:This is the opposite condition where forward prices create a downward curve and spot prices exceed the forward prices. Example: December gold $1,100, February gold $1,099, April gold $1,098, June gold $1,097.

Read more.

The Market Gage for October 5, 2015


by Walter Pehowich

Today I would like to share with you the other side of the Precious Metals market: the CME Future's market and the Wall Street Gold Trader. On Friday we talked about who the retail investor is and their role in the marketplace. Now I will explain why you see a total disconnect from the price of gold and silver to the physical demand for metal.

Who is the Wall Street Gold Trader? A person who works for a bank, brokerage house, or hedge fund and most likely trades a proprietary book for his or her firm. They use technical levels, like 200- or 50-day moving average trading levels for gold and silver and have the latest electronic trading platform with the fastest news services available. He/she trades CME futures or options and also has a program that runs an algorithm book to complement their other tools and looks for momentum in the market and their trading activity creates volatility and increased open interest in the futures contracts.

Friday when the job number report came out we witnessed exactly what programing trading can do to the price of gold and silver. Let me explain. At 8:30, when the number was released, gold immediately took a bid and started to rally. The price of gold jumped 25 dollars in 15 minutes. The speed of this quick rally to the upside was initiated by some key news items. Algorithm applications look for specific wording that hits the tape and immediately executes a buy or sell order electronically. In the old days on the Comex floor, there was an open outcry pit. Brokers trading for themselves and for clients (i.e., banks, brokerage houses and hedge funds) quoted market prices back to the proprietary desks for orders to be executed. Market movement took time to react to the news. Today it's a completely new ballgame. It is my opinion, it would be very difficult to move the price of gold that fast with open outcry. Well it's different times now. With the speed of the electronic platforms, much larger orders can be executed with ease, where open outcry would take a lot longer.

Read more.

The Market Gage for September 30, 2015


Market Insights
From Peter Aan

Metals are generally lower this morning, with Gold leading the way south, while Palladium tries to hang tough near yesterday's close. Here's what I see now:

Gold
Gold has penetrated that 1120.50 support level (December contract) that I discussed Wednesday. Now we are primed to move towards the more important level at the September low of 1097.70. If that level does not hold, we could see movement towards the critical low from August at 1073.70. That is the lowest gold price since early 2010. The big picture on Gold shows that we have been ratcheting down over recent years, with spurts of falling prices followed by rally attempts that fail to last more than 2-4 months. I continue to look for lower prices.

Read more.

The Market Gage for September 28, 2015


Market Insights
From Peter Aan

Sunday night's openings in the metals were all close to Friday's close, but none were able to build from there and all have slid to substantial losses. Here's what I see now:

Gold
This morning we have seen Gold take out Thursday's low. As I said on Friday, this is an important short-term level. Now that this has been penetrated (and a close below this level would be a stronger indication), we must now expect a test of another short-term support at 1120.50 (December contract). We are close to that level already, but a more important support level is at the September low of 1097.70. .

Read more.

The Market Gage for September 18, 2015


Market Insights
From Peter Aan

Over the last four decades of watching the markets, I have noticed how often the initial reaction to a news event or report is wrong, or at least overdone. Such it was with the Fed announcement yesterday, where the initial reaction in many markets was short lived, and the markets either turned south or moderated their initial gains. The equity markets are overrun with bears this morning, while the precious metals markets have seen the bulls return. Here's what I see now:

Gold
The strength we saw on Wednesday morning, after having second thoughts yesterday, has followed through nicely this morning, and we are approaching the resistance at 1147.30 (December contract) that I wrote about. If we can penetrate that level, the next resistance is a more important one at 1169.80, the August high. We have plenty of momentum now to the upside, and the market is not overbought, so the easiest path is to head higher.1.

Read more.

The Market Gage for September 2, 2015


Market Insights
From Peter Aan

Action is subdued this morning, but we should see the brief, monthly fireworks Friday morning (7:30 CST) as the employment numbers are released. Here's what I see now:

Gold
Gold has rallied reluctantly since Monday, but is a little lower this morning. I still favor lower prices, with the caveat that a close above 1146.00 (December contract) will signal a move towards the recent high of 1169.80.

Silver
We have had relatively subdued action in Silver since my Monday commentary, and it is a little lower this morning. I still look for lower prices, but if it closes above Thursday's high of 14.745 (December), a trend change to the upside is signaled.

Read more.

The Market Gage for August 31, 2015


Market Insights
From Peter Aan

The action Sunday night and early Monday shows little of the volatility that we've seen in recent weeks, except for Platinum, which is sharply lower this morning. Here's my take as we begin the week.

Gold
After a lukewarm close on Friday, Gold is a little lower this morning. Barring a close above Thursday's high of 1146.00 (December contract), I think this market will work lower. If we do close above 1146.00, the recent high of 1169.80 will be ripe for testing.

Silver
If we should close above Thursday's high of 14.745 (December), a trend change to the upside is signaled. Otherwise, I continue to favor lower prices.

Read more.